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CNN data expert warns that Trump’s increased support among Black voters could have a negative impact on Biden’s campaign

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Former President Trump’s gains with Black voters have raised serious concerns for President Biden’s re-election campaign, according to CNN data reporter Harry Enten. Trump’s current double Black vote compared to the previous election is seen as a significant shift that could potentially secure Trump a win in the upcoming presidential election. Enten described these gains as a “huge alarm” for the Democratic Party, highlighting Trump’s improvement from 10% to 21% of the Black vote, while Biden’s support declined from 81% to 70%.

Enten emphasized the importance of not treating Black voters as a monolith, pointing out that most of Trump’s gains have come from Black voters under the age of 49. The data showed that Trump has 27% support from this demographic, while Biden has 64%. In contrast, Biden has strong support from Black voters over 50, with 85% of their support compared to Trump’s 8%. Enten stressed that understanding the age breakdown of Black voter support is crucial in analyzing the shifting dynamics of the upcoming election.

According to Enten, without considering any other voting shifts from 2020, Trump’s increase in Black support could potentially secure him 291 Electoral College votes in 2024. He pointed out that key states that would shift in favor of Trump include Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Anchor Boris Sanchez noted that these numbers represent a significant opening for Republicans and could pose a serious challenge to Biden’s campaign. Enten warned that these numbers could be “deadly” for Biden’s re-election prospects.

The data guru highlighted the historical significance of Trump’s potential performance among Black voters, noting that it would be the best performance for a Republican presidential candidate in 64 years, since Richard Nixon in 1960. Enten’s analysis of polling averages from various sources, including CNN, NBC News, ABC News, and Pew Research, underscored the importance of understanding the demographic breakdown of Black voter support. He urged caution in overlooking the impact of Trump’s gains among younger Black voters, emphasizing the need to analyze and address these shifting dynamics in the upcoming election.

Overall, Enten’s analysis emphasizes the critical importance of Black voter support in shaping the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. Trump’s gains among Black voters, especially among younger demographics, pose a significant challenge to Biden’s re-election campaign. As the political landscape continues to evolve, understanding the dynamics of Black voter support will be essential for both parties in strategizing for the 2024 election.

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