- Markets Closed 3Q In The Red
- Dollar Strength Could Prove To Be A Headwind
- Employment Report On Friday
Friday’s close marked the end of the third quarter and it was the first quarter in which broad market indices were down. The S&P 500 fell by 3.7% and the Nasdaq Composite was down just over 4%. On Saturday, we received encouraging news as a government shutdown was averted. For now. It was really more of a kick the can down the road, as Congress will need to reach agreement by November on a spending bill. Getting a bill through Congress could become more difficult as Speaker McCarthy may face a vote to have him removed as House Speaker.
While we wait on Congress, we have a lot of economic data coming this week that could make for heavier trading. Taking a look at the headline acts for the week: This morning saw the release of the ISM Manufacturing Report and later this morning, Fed Chairman Powell will speak. On Tuesday, the latest job openings report (JOLTs) is scheduled for release. 8.83 million job openings is the number most are looking for. Wednesday we’ll get a look at Services PMI along with ISM non-Manufacturing. Then on Friday, the latest jobs numbers will be released. Economists are forecasting 163 thousand non-farm payroll jobs created and an unemployment rate of 3.7%.
Last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report was largely in line with expectations and as a result, expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates when they next meet in November are just 31% according to the CME. I’ll be watching to see if those probabilities change at all or if the probabilities in December change. Currently, there is a 39% chance the Fed will raise rates then.
One thing that could definitely factor into a rate hike decision is oil. Prices of oil have been rising steadily and are now over $90 a barrel. As I’ve mentioned, if there is a commodity that can ignite inflation, it’s oil. Another item to keep an eye on is the U.S. dollar. Since mid-July the dollar is up 6%. For multinational companies dependent upon overseas sales, a strong dollar can be a drag. Earnings season will kick off the end of next week with banks reporting first. But I’m very interested to see how the dollar is affecting companies such as Apple
For today, I’m keeping a close eye on volatility. After falling some last week, the VIX is back up near 18. Given the amount of data coming this week, I think it’s possible we’ll see more volatility as the week progresses. Stocks were relatively flat on the open; however, bonds are down once again and yields are on the rise. As always, I would stick with your investing plans and long term objectives.
tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.
Neglect contributed to diabetic patient’s death in mental health hospital
FDA approves first gene therapies for sickle cell disease
Hard pill to swallow… A grateful world was only introduced to Viagra because one Welsh ex-miner – and the nurse he confided in – overcame their embarrassment to reveal a startling side effect!
Charlie Munger said there was no secret to his success: ‘I avoided the standard ways of failing’
How TikTok Is Making This Once ‘Dangerous’ Country a Tourist Hotspot
Moment burned volcano survivors plead for help after getting caught in deadly eruption that claimed 11 lives and left 12 others missing
Introducing SELF’s Diet Culture Detox Course!
Look: Sheikh Mohamed, Kamala Harris discuss bilateral relations,regional developments at COP28
Score a free footlong chocolate chip cookie at Subway in NYC on National Cookie Day
House could have articles of impeachment against Biden ready in first half of 2024
South Korea plunging deeper into sub export markets
Former NFL TE accidentally ‘devalued’ an important piece of Tom Brady memorabilia
The roots and depths of Israel’s Hamas intel failure
Jaylen Brown’s ejection adds drama, but Celtics beat Knicks: 8 takeaways
Ryan O’Neal Through the Years: The ‘Love Story’ Star’s Life in Photos
News19 hours ago
Hunter Biden: Read the indictment against president’s son in full
Investing18 hours ago
Here are Friday’s biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Boeing, First Solar, Qorvo, Exxon, Meta, O’Reilly & more
News19 hours ago
U.S. issues strongest criticism of Israel yet as civilian deaths in Gaza surge
News22 hours ago
GOP’s Brutal Math: Trump Could Secure Nomination Before Conviction
Auto15 hours ago
The Tesla Cybertruck Has Strong Sales Potential, But Only If US Buyers Step Up
News23 hours ago
Dozens of Palestinians are captured by IDF, stripped and paraded around Gaza
Travel19 hours ago
Local Vibes Come to a Regenerated Area of Aruba
News22 hours ago
Taiwan says Chinese balloon spotted over Taiwan Strait ahead of crucial election