What’s Next For Chevron’s Stock?

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), a company manufacturing and selling a range of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, marine and aviation fuels, premium base oil, finished lubricants, and fuel oil additives, has increased by 5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $184. CVX’s
CVX
recent financial performance has been supported by higher energy prices, which climbed to over $120 a barrel earlier this year. Currently, Brent, the international benchmark, trades at $81/barrel at the time of writing. In the third quarter, the company’s top line grew 49% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $66.6 billion. The company’s net income jumped to $11.2 billion, or $5.78/share, from $6.1 billion, or $3.19/share, in the year-earlier quarter. It should be noted that profit slipped 3% from its all-time high in Q2 due to more than $600 million in net charges during the third quarter. In addition, Chevron’s Q3 worldwide net production totaled 3 million barrels per day, with output in the International segment declining 3% y-o-y due to the end of concessions in Thailand and Indonesia. Its U.S. production increased by 4% y-o-y, mainly in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. Also, the company’s Q3 average sales price for crude oil and natural gas liquids in U.S. upstream operations was $76 per barrel, up from $58 per barrel in the year-earlier quarter, and the average sales price of natural gas surged to $7.05 per Mcf from $3.25 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet) a year ago.

Despite the healthy demand for physical crude oil, certain economic factors stand to dampen the outlook for oil demand. There is speculation that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers are likely discussing a production increase of as much as 500K barrels/day for next week’s OPEC+ meeting. Also, Covid-19 cases are once again rising in China, and the country’s struggle to get its Covid cases under control with its zero-Covid policy could impact the demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer. In addition, the continued rising interest rates in the U.S. also pose a threat to the oil market.

Now, is CVX stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in CVX stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of CVX’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ’Event Probability’ and ’Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data

[1] Returns of -0.4% or lower over a five-day period on 1171 occasions out of 2517 (47%); Stock rose in the next five days in 620 of these 1171 instances (53%)

[2] Returns of 3.5% or higher over a ten-day period on 471 occasions out of 2518 (19%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 263 of these 471 instances (56%)

[3] Returns of 5.3% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 565 occasions out of 2515 (22%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 303 of these 565 instances (54%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. CVX Peers shows how Chevron’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates