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Emmy Predictions 2023: Jason Segel, Ayo Edebiri and Brett Goldstein Among Acting Contenders Who Could Nab Writing Noms

Published

2 months ago

April 1, 2023

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: March 30, 2023

Weekly Commentary: There are plenty of unknown factors in these early days of the Emmy seasons. Variety exclusively reported “Yellowjackets” breakout star Sophie Nélisse, who plays the teenage version of Shauna, will now join her adult counterpart Melanie Lynskey in the lead actress drama category, with hopes of landing a nomination.

There will many more announcements and shuffles to come.

The first stab at the top six writing candidates has been added to the prediction list. Many acting candidates could land double noms including Jason Segel (“Shrinking”), in addition to Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) and Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear” and “What We Do in the Shadows”).

Check them out below.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

Drama Series

Image Credit: Courtesy of Kailey Schwerman/Showtime

“Andor” (Disney+)
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
“Succession” (HBO) ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Comedy Series

Image Credit: Beth Dubber

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC) ***
“Barry” (HBO)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Limited or Anthology Series

Image Credit: © 2022 Lucasfilm Ltd

“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
“Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
“Love & Death” (HBO) ***
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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TV Movie

Image Credit: ©Hulu/Courtesy Everett Collection

“Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic” (NBC)
“Fire Island” (Hulu)
“Prey” (Hulu)
“Reality” (HBO)
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) ***
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actor (Drama)

Image Credit: Des Willie / Lucasfilm Ltd.

Jeff Bridges
“The Old Man” (FX)
Brian Cox ***
“Succession” (HBO)
Diego Luna
“Andor” (Disney+)
Bob Odenkirk
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Pedro Pascal
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Jeremy Strong
“Succession” (HBO)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Lead Actor (Comedy)

Image Credit: Matt Dinerstein/FX

Bill Hader
“Barry” (HBO)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Segel
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Jason Sudeikis
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Courtesy of Roku

Taron Egerton
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Evan Peters ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Jesse Plemons
“Love and Death” (HBO)
Daniel Radcliffe
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
Michael Shannon
“George and Tammy” (Showtime)
Justin Theroux
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Lead Actress (Drama)

Image Credit: Kailey Schwerman/SHOWTIME

Emma D’Arcy
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Melanie Lynskey ***
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Elisabeth Moss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Sophie Nélisse
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Imelda Staunton
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Lead Actress (Comedy)

Image Credit: Peacock

Christina Applegate
“Dead to Me” (Netflix)
Rachel Brosnahan
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
Quinta Brunson ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Selena Gomez
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Natasha Lyonne
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Jenna Ortega
“Wednesday” (Netflix)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>
Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Lacey Terrell/Prime Video

Emily Blunt
“The English” (Amazon Prime Video)
Jessica Chastain
“George and Tammy” (Showtime)
Riley Keough
“Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
Amber Midthunder
“Prey” (Hulu)
Elizabeth Olsen ***
“Love and Death” (HBO)
Rachel Weisz
“Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actor (Drama)

Image Credit: HBO

F. Murray Abraham ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Jonathan Banks
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Kieran Culkin
“Succession” (HBO)
Giancarlo Esposito
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
John Lithgow
“The Old Man” (FX)
Matthew Macfadyen
“Succession” (HBO)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Matt Smith
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Supporting Actor (Comedy)

Image Credit: Merrick Morton/HBO

Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Brett Goldstein
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Atlanta” (FX)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
“The Bear”
Tony Shalhoub
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Tyler James Williams ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Henry Winkler
“Barry” (HBO)
Bowen Yang
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Apple TV+

Murray Bartlett
“Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
Domhnall Gleeson
“The Patient” (FX)
Paul Walter Hauser ***
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Richard Jenkins
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Ray Liotta
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Bowen Yang
“Fire Island” (Hulu)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Supporting Actress (Drama)

Image Credit: Graeme Hunter

Jennifer Coolidge ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Elizabeth Debicki
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Meghann Fahy
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Christina Ricci
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Rhea Seehorn
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
J. Smith-Cameron
“Succession” (HBO)
Sarah Snook
“Succession” (HBO)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Supporting Actress (Comedy)

Alex Borstein
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ego Nwodim
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Cecily Strong
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Hannah Waddingham
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Jessica Williams
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection

Claire Danes
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
Moses Ingram
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Cherry Jones
“Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
Niecy Nash-Betts ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Lily Rabe
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Merritt Wever
“Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Talk Series

Image Credit: Lloyd Bishop/NBC

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“The Problem With Jon Stewart” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Scripted Variety Series

Image Credit: Screenshot Courtesy of HBO

“A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
“Ziwe” (Showtime)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Game Show

Image Credit: Photo courtesy of Jeopardy Productions, Inc.

“Floor is Lava” (Netflix)
“Is It Cake?” (Netflix)
“Let’s Make a Deal” (CBS)
“Jeopardy” (ABC) ***
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (ABC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Directing (Drama)

Image Credit: Liane Hentscher/HBO

“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Miguel Sapochnik, “The Heirs of the Dragon”
“The Last of Us” (HBO) ***
Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Craig Mazin, “When You’re Lost in the Darkness”
“The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Amazon Prime Video)
J.A. Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
“Succession” (HBO)
TBA director(s), “TBA episode title”
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Directing (Comedy)

Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Prime

“Barry” (HBO) ***
Bill Hader, “TBA episode”
“The Bear” (FX)
Christopher Storer, “System”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
TBA Director, “TBA episode”
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Rian Johnson, “Dead Man’s Hand”
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
James Ponsoldt, “Coin Flip”
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
TBA Director, “TBA episode”
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Directing (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Disney Plus

“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Michaël R. Roskam, “Pilot”
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Paris Barclay, “God of Forgiveness, God of Vengeance”
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Lesli Linka Glatter, “TBA Episode Title”
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Deborah Chow, “Part VI”
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) ***
Eric Appel
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
David Mandel, “TBA Episode Title”
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Writing (Drama)

Image Credit: Credit: Natalie Seery

“Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
“The Prick” by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“Saul Gone” by Peter Gould
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
“Long, Long Time” by Craig Mazin
“Succession” (HBO) ***
“TBA Episode 10” by Jesse Armstrong
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
“TBA Episode 10” by Ameni Rozsa
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
“Arrivederci” by Mike White
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
Writing (Comedy)

Image Credit: Russ Martin

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Development Day” by Quinton Brunson
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“System” by Christopher Storer
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
“Dead Man’s Hand” by Rian Johnson
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“Coin Flip” by Bill Lawrence, Jason Segel, Brett Goldstein
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
“TBA Episode 34” by Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
“Private School” by Ayo Edebiri, Shana Gohd
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Writing (Limited/Anthology/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Hulu

“Black Bird” (Apple TV+) ***
“WhatsHerName” by Dennis Lehane, Steve Harris
“Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
“Track 1: Come and Get It” by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
“Summon Your Witness” by Taffy Brodesser-Akner
“Love & Death” (HBO)
“TBA Episode” by TBA
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
“TBA Episode” by Alex Gregory, Peter Huyck
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
Film Screenplay by Al Yankovic, Eric Appel
Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
TV Columns and Podcast Archives

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Awards Circuit TV Columns

Awards Circuit Podcast (TV Season) Archives
- TV episodes are set to premiere in April 2023.
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER, SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.