Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Drama) – Could Harrison Ford Receive Double Noms for ‘1923’ and ‘Shrinking?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Weekly Commentary: “Yellowstone” may have been shut out at the 2022 Emmys, but Paramount+’s Western spinoff “1923” hopes to break that cycle with its stars Harrison Ford and Helen Mirren.

Ford, 80, has never received an Emmy nom — and this year, he could get two. The other is for his career-best performance as a senior therapist with Parkinson’s disease in “Shrinking” from Apple TV, which he’s submitted for supporting comedy actor.

As we know, Brian Cox has submitted his performance as Logan Roy, the recently departed Waystar Royco CEO on HBO’s “Succession,” into the lead actor (drama) category, alongside Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong.

Two of the top contenders in the lead drama actor race — Pedro Pascal as the hardened survivor Joel from HBO’s apocalyptic video game adaptation “The Last of Us” and Diego Luna as the rebel hero Cassian in the “Star Wars” prequel series “Andor” from Disney+ — are Latino and star in buzzy sci-fi and fantasy series.

Only one Latino actor has been recognized in the lead drama actor category in the past: From 1995-1999, Jimmy Smits received five consecutive noms for his role as Det. Bobby Simone on ABC’s “NYPD Blue.” Coincidentally, Pascal appeared as a guest on a 2001 episode.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

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And the Predicted Nominees Are:

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Other Top-Tier Possibilities

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All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

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** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)

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Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.