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Russia’s economic decline deepens; Putin warns Moscow could pull out of grain deal again

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Ukraine’s first lady urges West to provide more weapons ahead of winter

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska during at opening night of Web Summit 2022 in Lisbon, Portugal on November 1, 2022.

Rita Franca | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska on Wednesday called on Western leaders to offer more military support as the country continues to defend itself against Russia’s onslaught.

Zelenska urged the international community not to grow fatigued by the war, saying allied countries must fight the aggressor together.

“I understand that these are outside the duties of first ladies, but we are already outside the normal protocols because of the war,” Zelenska told CNBC’s Karen Tso, according to a translation.

“Ukraine needs more weapons, more military assistance,” she said, calling specifically for air defense missiles.

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— Karen Gilchrist

Russia’s economic decline deepens in September

Wholesale food market in Moscow.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Russia’s monthly economic downturn continued in September with gross domestic product declining by 5% year on year, according to the latest data from Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, reported by state news agency Interfax.

The decline in economic output in September followed a 4% year-on-year decline in August, and a 4.3% decline in July.

According to the ministry, the decline in Russia’s GDP in the third quarter of 2022 amounted to 4.4% in annual terms, after a decline of 4.1% in the second quarter and growth of 3.5% in the first quarter.

Russia has been laboring under the weight of international sanctions on key sectors, businesses and individuals for months following its invasion of Ukraine, although it was subject to other economic sanctions before the war for other reasons, including alleged U.S. election interference, cyberattacks and its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

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Russian consumers are facing considerable living costs as inflation remains high, with the rate at 12.9% in October, although it has been gradually declining (inflation stood at 14.3% in August) after the central bank raised interest rates to tackle price rises.

Russia has insisted that its economy is able to circumnavigate the challenges posed by sanctions and, as a major oil and gas exporter, has been able to maintain revenue streams from the exports of those commodities to economic partners in Asia, particularly India and China.

Still, Western agencies like the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, IMF and World Bank expect Russia’s economic decline to be significant this year. Between them, they have forecast that Russia’s GDP could drop by at least 5.5% in the best-case scenario to almost 9% in the worst-case scenario.

For its part, Russia’s ministry forecast that Russia’s economic output would decline by 2.9% in 2022 and by 0.8% in 2023, before growing by 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, Interfax reported.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian military leaders reportedly considered using tactical nukes in Ukraine

Russian military leaders reportedly considered using tactical nukes in Ukraine

CNBC’s Shep Smith looks at reports that Russian military leaders recently discussed the possibility of using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Putin confirms resumption of Black Sea Grain Initiative, but says Russia could withdraw again

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a news conference following the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders’ summit in Astana, Kazakhstan October 14, 2022.

Ramil Sitdikov | Sputnik | via Reuters

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said that despite Russia’s return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, it “reserves the right to withdraw” from the deal if Ukrainian guarantees are not met.

Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal over the weekend, after claiming a Ukrainian drone attacked its Black Sea fleet in Crimea. Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the attack, which some Ukrainian officials blamed on Russian soldiers mishandling their own weapons.

“We demanded assurances and guarantees from the Ukrainian side that nothing like this will happen in the future,” Putin said in a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council.

“I have given instructions to the Ministry of Defense to resume our full participation in this work,” he added. “At the same time, Russia reserves the right to withdraw from these agreements if these guarantees are violated by Ukraine.”

Early in the war, Russia relied on its Black Sea fleet to launch missiles deep into Ukraine, but the fleet drew back into a defensive position after a series of embarrassing attacks this spring by Ukrainian forces.

Before last weekend’s drone attack, analysts noted that Russia already appeared to be laying rhetorical groundwork for withdrawing from the deal, before reversing course this week.

The grain is critical to feeding populations in some of the world’s poorest countries, and a return to a full blockade could have brought famine to millions in Asia and the Middle East.

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Putin also committed to delivering the “entire volume” of grain that has been delivered from Ukraine to the poorest countries “free of charge,” if Russia withdraws from the deal in the future.

— Rocio Fabbro

Agricultural shipments continue from Ukraine as grain deal resumes

Agricultural shipments continue from Ukraine as grain deal resumes

Video credit: Burak Kara | Getty Images

The bulk carrier Asl Tia is shown transiting Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait, carrying 39,000 metric tons of sunflower meal from Ukraine on Wednesday. The vessel is on its way to China.

Russia on Tuesday rejoined a deal that gives safe passage to grain shipments from Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February. Russia has severely disrupted Ukraine’s agricultural output and prior to the deal was blockading outbound vessels. The deal was brokered by Turkey and the UN.

The Kremlin said it was leaving the deal over the weekend after Ukraine attacked warships from its Black Sea Fleet. But loaded freighters sailed anyway, and Moscow rejoined the agreement on Wednesday.

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, with nations in Asia, Africa and beyond dependent on its food shipments.

— Ted Kemp

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Turkey’s Erdogan tells Zelenskyy to increase diplomatic efforts to end the war

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of his ruling AK Party (AKP) during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey May 18, 2022. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT

Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call to increase diplomatic efforts to end the war.

“President Erdogan stated that on the basis of an understanding that will lead to the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, diplomatic efforts should be increased to end the war with a just solution,” reads a post from the Turkish president’s official Twitter account.

Erdogan also emphasized the importance of Ukrainian and Russian grain exports, underscoring the importance of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. In the same call, Zelenskyy thanked Erdogan for his “active participation in preserving the ‘grain deal,’” in a Telegram post.

Turkey played a crucial role in both brokering the United Nations-backed deal in July and in ending Russia’s suspension of the deal this week.

— Rocio Fabbro

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Source: CNBC

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