U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom

The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape even as questions persist over whether growth will turn negative in the year ahead.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced for the October-to-December period, rose at a 2.9% annualized pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of 2.8%.

The growth rate was slightly slower than the 3.2% pace in the third quarter.

Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields were mostly higher as well.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 68% of GDP, increased 2.1% for the period, down slightly from 2.3% in the previous period but still positive.

Inflation readings moved considerably lower. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 3.2%, in line with expectations but down sharply from 4.8% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, the chain-weighted index rose 3.9%, down from 4.7%.

Along with the boost from consumers, increases in private inventory investment, government spending and nonresidential fixed investment helped lift the GDP number. A 26.7% plunge in residential fixed investment, reflecting a sharp slide in housing, served as a drag on the growth number, as did a 1.3% decline in exports.

The report caps off a volatile year for economic growth.

Following a 2021 that saw GDP rise at its strongest pace since 1984, the first two quarters of 2022 started off with negative growth, matching a commonly held definition of a recession. However, a resilient consumer and strong labor market helped growth turn positive in the final two quarters and give hope for 2023.

Most economists, though, think a recession is a strong possibility this year.

A series of aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate increases aimed at taming runaway inflation are expected to come to roost this year. The Fed raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 4.25 percentage points since March 2022 to its highest rate since late 2007. Rate hikes generally operate on lags, meaning their real effect may not be felt until the time ahead.

Markets see a near certainty that the Fed is going enact another quarter percentage point increase at its meeting next week and likely follow that up with one more similar-sized hike in March.

Some sectors of the economy have shown signs of recession even though overall growth has been positive. Housing in particular has been a laggard, with building permits down 30% in December from a year ago and starts down 22%.

Corporate profit reports from the fourth quarter also are signaling a potential earnings recession. With nearly 20% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, earnings are tracking at a loss of 3%, even with revenue growing 4.1%, according to Refinitiv.

Consumer spending also is showing signs of weakening, with retail sales down 1.1% in December.

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