Where MLB experts predict the Red Sox will finish in 2023
Most writers and analysts think Boston will finish as one of the bottom two teams in the AL East.
In 2023 the Red Sox are looking to contend while simultaneously cutting down on payroll.
Over the offseason, Boston dropped about $50 million in total payroll while also adding a handful of veterans in free agency.
Many experts around the league however, don’t see this roster turnover as a way to improve on last year’s 78-84 season.
Several analysts around the league predict the squad to have a last-place finish in the American League East for the second year in a row and lose more games than last season.
Here are some of the major outlets that made predictions on how the Red Sox will do this season.
For their piece on predicting the division winners in 2023, the site had six writers rank the teams.
At the top, the group was split between the Yankees and Blue Jays for first place, with each team receiving three votes. Two writers picked the Red Sox to finish in third ahead of the Orioles and Rays, but the rest had Boston in last at the end of the regular season.
In February, MLB.com’s Will Leitch broke down the AL East and his predicitons for the division. Leitch was not a fan whatsoever of the Red Sox’s chances heading into this year, writing, “Seriously, any team other than the Red Sox could win this division.”
He predicted that Boston would finish 14 games behind fourth-place Tampa with a record of 68-94.
The Network had 28 different writers provide their predictions for who would win each division and as well capture the six total wild card spots in baseball this year.
None of the writers went with the Red Sox as their division favorite, and while nine teams were projected to be an AL wild card team, Boston was not one of them.
In a similar fashion to ESPN, USA Today had a group of writers make their picks for division winners and wild card teams. Similar to the previous group, none of the seven USA Today writers see the Red Sox making the playoffs this season.
The Athletic is another outlet who thinks rather highly of the other teams in the AL East but not all that much of Boston. Keith Law predicts them to go 78-84 and the site’s staff has them finishing last.
According to the writers, every team in the AL East besides the Red Sox has a chance at winning the division title.
Predictions from machines
While the humans don’t expect much from this year’s Red Sox team, a couple popular analytics models are upbeat about their chances.
Both Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight predict Boston to finish with a .500 record or better in 2023. Fangraphs has them at 83-79, fourth in the AL East and just one game behind the Angels for the third wild card spot.
According to the site, the team’s success will come at the plate, with the seventh best projected offense but just the 20th best pitching staff/defense.
On the FiveThirtyEight side, while the data is slightly more limited (the site does not account for prospects about to reach the majors or injured players, making opponents like the Orioles look worse), the Red Sox are projected to finish 81-81 and have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs before the regular season starts.
In terms of other FiveThirtyEight probabilities, Boston has a nine percent chance of winning its division and a two percent chance of winning the World Series.
Source: Boston Globe
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