With few economic releases and the earnings season starting to wind down, an appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday could be among the newsiest events for markets in the week ahead. The Fed chair is speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at midday Tuesday. Powell made what were taken as a very dovish string of comments during his media briefing following the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate hike announcement Wednesday. “Powell in general terms doesn’t make news in the week after the FOMC. He was in that press conference for an hour. If he wanted to walk back anything, he could have done it then,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley. Powell notably used the word “disinflation” numerous times during his briefing, and that encouraged investors to believe the Fed sees inflation fading and its rate hiking close to an end. Stocks rallied for two sessions following his comments and bond yields fell. Some of those moves reversed Friday, but stocks still posted a positive week with the S & P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq up 3.3%. The Dow was off slightly for the week, with a 0.2% decline. .SPX 1Y line stocks Some market pros see Powell’s appearance as a chance for him to reinforce the messages he wants the market to pay attention to, like the fact the Fed remains committed to crushing inflation. Powell did say he is concerned that the progress made in slowing inflation could be reversed. “I hope that there will be a lot more clarity on this idea that rates can stay higher for longer,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock’s head of iShares investment strategy. “It’s very hard to know whether the market will take it as hawkish or dovish, but I think it could add some clarity…I think what’s important is that they will guide to higher rates for longer. ” Economists said Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report should encourage the Fed to push forward with planned rate hikes. They also said it is more likely that the central bank will reach its forecast for the terminal rate, or top of its hiking range. The Fed has forecast a high range, or terminal rate, of 5% to 5.25%. There were a stunning 517,000 jobs added in January, nearly three times the amount expected by economists. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the payrolls number may be overstated and there could be some issue with seasonal adjustments. But its message is clear. “It’s fluky, but it’s making a case that the labor market is strong, and I think it’s consistent with this mantra that we’re making progress but we’ve got a long way to go,” said Zandi. “I wouldn’t count on the rate hikes ending anytime soon, and I wouldn’t count on interest rate cuts anytime soon.” There will not be much new on the economy in the coming week for the investors to consider. There is international trade data Tuesday and wholesale trade data Wednesday. Consumer sentiment is reported Friday. Earnings, earnings, earnings But there continues to be earnings news. There’s a broad range of companies reporting, from Dupont and Chipotle Tuesday to Walt Disney Wednesday and PepsiCo and PayPal Thursday. So far, earnings are on track to be down 2.7% for the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv. “The biggest concern we had was there was going to be a big drawdown in the estimates for the S & P 500 earnings for the end of 2023, and that really hasn’t happened,” said Hogan. Companies are beating earnings estimates at a pace of nearly 70%. “17% of the S & P 500 reports during the course of the week, but it’s also fewer household names, so everything tends to be much more company specific than it was sector specific,” said Hogan. “It sounds like it’s going to be a case-by-case micro-focused week.” In the past week, a group of heavyweights reported. Reports from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet were all released after the closing bell Thursday. While Apple’s revenues declined and it missed forecasts , its stock closed higher Friday. The big cap tech company is closely watched by investors since it is the largest company by market capitalization. Its resilience is seen as a positive for the overall market since it has an oversized influence on stock market indices. “Apple’s got the least of the concerns of the mega-cap technology names,” said Hogan. “To have a revenue shortfall because you couldn’t supply demand is much better than the outlook at other mega caps.” Hogan also said the market’s strong January move could be put to the test in February. “January’s biggest drivers has been the potential for a pause in monetary policy and a dumpster dive in the biggest losers of last year,” he said. “That doesn’t last long. Then, you have to have the news that justify the moves.” So far this year, the worst performing sectors of last year have taken the lead. The same is true with many stocks. For instance, the communications services sector is up 21% since the beginning of the year, while consumer discretionary is up 17% and information technology is up 14%. BlackRock’s Chaudhuri said investors should proceed with caution. “I think a pullback in the market is probably likely,” she said. “However, I would say it’s probably not going to be a deep pullback. We’re not going to see new lows of the cycle. There are some reasons for optimism.” She said parts of the economy remain in good shape, and the reopening of China is a positive. “I would certainly not tell investors to chase the rally here,” she said. “Our biggest conviction is to tell investors to allocate to high quality fixed income.” Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Activision Blizzard , Take-Two Interactive, Pinterest, Leggett and Platt, Chegg , Genworth Financial, Loews, Spirit Airlines, Cummins, Tyson Foods, Energizer, ON Semiconductor, Nov, Aecom, Rambus, Zoominfo, Simon Property Group, Skyworks Solutions 2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey [Q1] Tuesday Earnings: DuPont, Chipotle , Yum China, Aramark, Carrier Global, Nintendo, BP, SoftBank, KKR, Hertz Global, Royal Caribbean, Valvoline, Enphase Energy, Omnicom, VF Corp, Western Union, NCR, Illumina, Kyndryl , Fortinet, Assurant , H & R Block, Nabors Industries, Trivago, Prudential Financial, Healthpeak Properties 8:30 a.m. International trade [Dec] 12:40 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Economic Club of Washington D.C. 2:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit [Dec] Wednesday Earnings: CVS Health, Walt Disney, Under Armour, Uber Technologies, Yum Brands, Fox Corp, CME Group, New York Times , Teva Pharma, International Flavors and Fragrances , Affirm Holdings, Mattel, Robinhood , MGM Resorts, Reynolds Consumer Products, XPO Logistics, O’Reilly Automotive, AllianceBernstein, Goodyear Tire , Pilgrim’s Pride, Equitable Holdings, AvalonBay, Penske Auto Group, Capri Holdings, Emerson Electric, Eaton, Bunge, Toyota 9:30 a.m. Fed Governor Lisa Cook 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair Barr 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade [Dec] 1:45 p.m. Fed Governor Christopher Waller Thursday Earnings: PepsiCo , Hilton Worldwide, AstraZeneca, PayPal, Expedia, Kellogg, Warner Music, Lions Gate, Cabot, Lyft, AbbVie, Ralph Lauren, Baxter International , Equity Residential, Mesa Air, Equity Residential, VeriSign, Yelp, Terex, Chemours, Mohawk , Aurora Cannabis, S & P Global , Masco, Willis Towers Watson, CyberArk Software, Interpublic, Duke Energy, Siemens, Credit Suisse, Sealed Air, Thomson Reuters 8:30 a.m. Weekly unemployment claims Friday Earnings: Honda Motor, Newell Brands 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment [Feb prelim] 12:30 p.m. Fed Gov Waller 2:00 p.m. Federal budget [Jan]
Travel21 hours ago
Finance21 hours ago
Sport21 hours ago
News21 hours ago
Tech21 hours ago
Tech21 hours ago
Travel22 hours ago
Lifestyle21 hours ago