FBI monitoring if US backing of Ukraine will encourage Russian interference in 2024 election

The recent briefing from senior FBI officials has raised concerns about potential Russian interference in the 2024 US presidential election due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and President Joe Biden’s support for Kyiv. There is a divide in US politics, with Democrats supporting Biden’s aid to Ukraine and some Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, backing away from the foreign aid. The focus is on whether Russia will escalate its meddling in the upcoming election compared to its actions in 2020.

In the 2020 election, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized influence operations to denigrate Biden, support Trump, and undermine confidence in the US electoral process. However, these actions were not as brazen as Russia’s operations in the 2016 election. The FBI officials stated that Russia likely sees US election infrastructure as legitimate targets for cyber espionage and data collection, with the aim of undermining election integrity and influencing operations.

China and Iran were also identified as potential threats to interfere in the 2024 US election. While China considered conducting influence operations in 2020, it ultimately did not intervene. Iran, on the other hand, conducted a covert influence campaign aimed at hurting Trump’s election bid. The FBI officials highlighted the role of artificial intelligence in enhancing the capabilities of state actors to scale their operations and build them larger than before.

The remarks from the senior FBI officials echo concerns raised by a former NSA official who emphasized Russia’s motivation to disrupt support for Ukraine in the upcoming election. It is unclear whether Russia will be more likely to interfere in the 2024 election compared to 2020, but the officials caution that the country remains dangerous. The second FBI official mentioned that Russia, China, and Iran are all capable of undermining confidence in US election integrity and bolstering influence operations through cyber-espionage.

Overall, the briefing highlights the ongoing threat of foreign interference in US elections and the need for robust cybersecurity measures to protect election integrity. As the 2024 election approaches, intelligence officials will continue to monitor the activities of Russia, China, Iran, and other state actors to prevent any unauthorized meddling in the democratic process.